Quick Summary: To build a renewal pipeline, apply sales-level process to customer success. Define renewal stages, assign probabilities and risk signals, and run structured weekly reviews. This creates accountability, early risk visibility, and predictable retention growth, transforming renewals from reactive tasks into a strategic revenue engine.
This is a guest post by Karthick JL of Customer Success Compass.
Sales leaders have a saying: hope is not a strategy. Deals do not close because you “feel good” about them. They close because there is a disciplined pipeline that tracks every stage, flags risk early and forces accountability.
So why do so many customer success teams still treat renewals like a calendar reminder?
If renewals drive the majority of your revenue, they deserve the same rigor as sales. Without a renewal pipeline, you are not running customer success like a growth engine. You are running it like a helpdesk with better manners.
Why renewal forecasts fail.
Let’s be blunt. Most renewal forecasts are wishful thinking. A spreadsheet updated once a quarter. A CSM’s gut check. A “we should be fine” conversation.
Here’s a story from my own experience:
At one company, I noticed a $2M account quietly slowing usage six months before renewal. The CSM thought everything was fine because the customer “always renewed.” We immediately got executives involved, ran a joint value workshop and addressed adoption gaps. Renewal closed on time and we even expanded by 20%. Without a pipeline and early visibility that would have been a churned account disguised as “safe.”
This is exactly what happens when renewals are treated as a calendar reminder. By the time the alarm goes off, it is too late to influence the outcome.
Compare that to sales. No CRO would tolerate a pipeline without stages, probabilities and weekly reviews. Yet many CS leaders still accept it for renewals.
It is no surprise that companies with structured customer management processes see measurable results. McKinsey research shows that organizations implementing deliberate customer experience practices, including clear journey stages, proactive engagement and executive involvement can achieve significantly higher retention rates.
How to build a rigorous renewal pipeline.
A renewal pipeline is not rocket science. It is just applying proven sales discipline to customer success. Here is how to build one.
1. Define stages, not deadlines.
Stop lumping all renewals into a single bucket. Break them into stages that mirror the customer journey. For example:
- Adoption Check (180+ days out): Usage and value validation, sponsor alignment.
- Alignment (90 – 180 days): Joint success plan review, expansion opportunities flagged.
- Commercial (30 – 90 days): Renewal terms in discussion, risks surfaced.
- Close (0 – 30 days): Contract signed.
Now you can see exactly where each renewal stands instead of pretending they are all the same.
2. Add probabilities and risk signals.
Sales leaders know not every deal is equal. Neither is every renewal. Use a simple probability system:
- Healthy (80 – 90%): Strong adoption, engaged exec sponsor.
- At risk (50%): Usage slipping, weak sponsor alignment, budget pressure.
- Critical (<25%): Escalations, leadership turnover, competitive threat.
Back this up with hard data: product analytics, support volume, NPS. Blend it with qualitative inputs from CSMs. Do not let “good relationship” be your only signal.
According to TSIA research, over 60% of CS leaders say lack of accurate risk signals is their biggest forecasting gap.
3. Run renewal pipeline reviews like sales forecast calls.
Renewal reviews should not be end-of-quarter fire drills. Treat them like sales forecast calls. Weekly. Structured. With accountability. Ask: Which renewals slipped stages and why?
- Which accounts need executive intervention?
- Which renewals could expand if we act early?
This forces action, not just reporting.
Lessons from sales in building a renewal pipeline.
Think of your sales team. Their pipeline is not optional. It is the heartbeat of revenue forecasting.
Renewals deserve the same rigor. The difference is that while sales is chasing new dollars, CS is protecting existing ones, often a bigger number. In SaaS, 75 – 80% of revenue typically comes from renewals and expansion, not new sales.
That means your renewal pipeline is not just a back office tool. It is a board-level growth lever.
The challenge to CS leaders:
Here is the challenge: if you are reporting renewals only as “closed won” or “closed lost” you are behind. Instead, show:
- How much ARR is at risk vs committed
- How many renewals are in each stage
- What interventions are happening right now
That is how you build confidence with your CEO and CFO. They do not want surprises. They want predictability. They want to see that CS has the same commercial discipline as sales.
The payoff? Renewals stop being a scramble. Your team spends less time firefighting and more time creating customer outcomes that make renewals the natural next step.
Karthick JL is a customer success leader who has scaled SaaS businesses globally, reducing churn and driving expansion. He helps CS teams move from reactive to revenue driving with practical, field tested frameworks.
